Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jul 10 2018
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal and truckload spot market.
Domestic intermodal spot rates are:
- Up 2.9% from prior week.
- Up 7.4% from 90 days ago.
- Up 47.1% from prior year.
The majority of the 115 lanes tracked within the intermodal spot rate index were unchanged from the prior week, while 16.7% increased.
Primary markets driving the increases include:
- Outbound SoCal lanes increased an average of just over 3%
- Outbound NoCal lanes increased an average of over 20%
Truckload spot rates continue their climb to record levels. DAT reported a 5.6% increase per mile this week with the current national dry van spot rate of $2.45 a mile. The dry van average spot rate is 29% higher than last year.
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported North American weekly intermodal volume was up 10.0% compared to the same week in 2017, while cumulative year-over-year volume is up 6.0%.
TOFC percentage growth continues to outpace COFC. The contributing factors to the growth of TOFC are truckload carriers looking for a power alternative to their long haul lanes and not enough containers to meet demand, although box owners are doing all they can to encourage IMC's to help turn their assets quicker.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.243 per gallon this week, which is a $0.007 increase.
The diesel price per gallon is up $0.762 or 30.7% higher from the same period last year.
Oil prices continue to hold above $70 a barrel this week, with WTI and Brent trading today in the range of $73.95 and $78.60, respectively. The risk of oil production shortages is getting more air time in the analyst community. The basis of their thesis of production issues is the lack of oil drilling and infrastructure investment over the lean years, political uncertainty and countries like Venezuela struggling to keep afloat.
The EIA for diesel and oil prices projection is $3.12 a gallon for calendar year 2018.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Graphs listed below include:
- 53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
- Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison