Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jun 28 2018
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal and truckload spot market.
Domestic intermodal spot rates are:
- Up 5.7% from prior week.
- Up 8.2% from 90 days ago.
- Up 47.2% from prior year.
As indicated last week, the intermodal market is a coiled spring waiting to take a big bounce higher and did just that with 80% of the 115 lanes tracked within the intermodal index increasing over the prior week. Primary markets driving the increases include:
- Outbound SoCal lanes increased an average of just over 7%
- Outbound NoCal lanes increased an average of over 20%
- Outbound Chicago lanes increased an average of 3%
- Outbound Jersey ramps increased an average of 4%
On the truckload side, DAT reported a 0.4% increase per mile this week with the current national dry van spot rate of $2.31 a mile. The dry van average spot rate is 28% higher than last year.
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported North American weekly intermodal volume was up 3.8% compared to the same week in 2017, while cumulative year-over-year volume is 5.4%
TOFC growth continues to outpace container growth with 16.1% year-over-year growth versus 4.6% COFC growth, which is an indicator that there are not enough containers to meet market demand.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.216 per gallon this week, which is a $0.028 decrease.
The diesel price per gallon is up $0.751 or 30.5% higher from the same period last year.
Oil prices jumped over $70 this week with WTI and Brent trading today in the range of $73.25 and $77.70, respectively. The OPEC meetings are behind us and while OPEC did indicate production would be increasing output there is a belief that all countries will not be able to meet the new targets assigned to them.
The EIA for diesel and oil prices increased its projection of the diesel fuel average for the year to be $3.12 in calendar year 2018.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Graphs listed below include:
- 53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
- Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison