Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Oct 8 2018
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal and truckload spot market.
The intermodal spot rate index decreased 2.5% over prior week.
For the week of October 8, 2018, domestic intermodal spot rates:
- Decreased 2.5% from prior week
- Increased 11.0% from 90 days ago.
- Increased 31.2% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 61.4% decreased, 22.8% increased and 15.8% went unchanged.
No particular lane or market was immune to a decrease.
While the year-over-year intermodal rate percentage comparison is decreasing, intermodal continues to run ahead of truckload spot rates in the year-over-year percentage comparison. There is an argument that says that should be the case because intermodal lagged in prior periods to truckload, but 31.2% versus 9.1% may be a stretch. It would be optimal to see a convergence in the comparables, so to limit the risk of freight being converted from intermodal to truckload in non-peak lanes.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.385 per gallon this week, which is a $0.072 increase over prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is up $0.483 or 17.3% higher from the same period last year.
Oil prices continue to remain elevated with WTI and Brent closed at $71.53 and $80.56, respectively.
Analysts took a more bearish look at the oil market this week, with the EIA reporting supply appears adequate and the demand forecast dampening. The EIA trimmed its forecast for world oil demand in through the end of this year and into next. The cause for a less optimistic demand were driven by weaker economic outlook because of trade concerns and a revision on Chinese data.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is $3.15 a gallon for calendar year 2018.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Graphs listed below include:
- 53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
- Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison