Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Aug 13, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 2.1% over the prior week.
For the week of August 13, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 2.1% from prior week.
- Down 2.6% from 90 days ago.
- Down 29.5% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 4.3% increased, 63.5% decreased and 32.2% went unchanged.
While the above stats indicate there was a softness across the board, the most interesting of the decreases came from LA and Chicago because of their importance to the intermodal market. Outbound Los Angeles was down a little over 4.0% and outbound Chicago down roughly 2.5%.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.7% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 12.3% and COFC is down 1.9%.
By region, volume is down 3.7% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.3% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.3% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remains in favor of intermodal and widened this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.9% and domestic 53' intermodal down 27.1%.
As we have been indicating since June, the spread is expected to continue widening on a percentage basis through the end of October, which is when we are projecting the spot market to final stabalize.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.011 per gallon this week, which is down $0.021 from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.206 or 6.4% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing held steady this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $54.85 and $58.65, respectively.
The EIA's August 2019 diesel price average price projection is $3.07 per gallon for calendar year. This is a $0.03 decrease from July's forecast.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $57.87
- Brent $65.15
Both the WTI and Brent price forecast was also decreased from expectations reported in July.
The reasoning for the reductions in the forecast are the headlines of the trade conflict and its impact on slowing the global economic growth continues to make headlines and have economists worried that the potential of a recession is ever increasing.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison