Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Aug 20, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 1.4% over the prior week.
For the week of August 20, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 1.4% from prior week.
- Down 5.3% from 90 days ago.
- Down 31.6% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 7.8% increased, 65.2% decreased and 27.0% went unchanged.
As the above statistics indicate, this was another week of across the board decreases.
North American intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD, with volume down 2.7% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 12.5% and COFC is down 1.9%.
By region, volume is down 3.8% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.2% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.7% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remains in favor of intermodal and widened this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.9% and domestic 53' intermodal down 28.5%.
Keep in mind there is more to the year-over-year decreases in intermodal, while truckload has steadied somewhat. The reason for this is the intermodal spot rates over shot the market in the latter half of 2018, as compared to truckload.
We are expecting the intermodal spot rates to continue to decrease, while also widening against truckload over the next couple of months before we seem them steady, as well.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.994 per gallon this week, which is down $0.017 from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.213 or 6.6% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing are up roughly $2.00 this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $56.25 and $60.75, respectively.
The EIA's August 2019 diesel price average price projection is $3.07 per gallon for calendar year. This is a $0.03 decrease from July's forecast.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $57.87
- Brent $65.15
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison