Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Aug 27, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index increased 0.5% over the prior week.
For the week of August 27, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Up 0.5% from prior week.
- Down 6.2% from 90 days ago.
- Down 33.6% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 27% increased, 47.8% decreased and 25.2% went unchanged.
If it were not for intermodal spot rate increases coming from outbound LA lanes, this would have been another down week.
An additional point to make, as it relates to intermodal spot rates this week is while they are up 0.5% over prior week, they did accelerate their decrease down by two (2) full percentage points on a year-over-year comparison.
North American intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD, with volume down 2.8% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 12.6% and COFC is down 2.0%.
By region, volume is down 3.8% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.5% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.1% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates widened again this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.9% and domestic 53' intermodal down 33.6%.
As we said previously, we fully anticipate the year-over-year spread to increases between truckload and intermodal because the intermodal spot rates over shot the market in the latter half of 2018, as compared to truckload.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.983 per gallon this week, which is down $0.011 from the prior week.
This is the seventh consecutive week the market has seen diesel rates drop.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.243 or 7.5% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing are down a little over $2.00 this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $54.00 and $58.65, respectively.
The EIA's August 2019 diesel price average price projection is $3.07 per gallon for calendar year. This is a $0.03 decrease from July's forecast.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $57.87
- Brent $65.15
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison