Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Aug 8, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.5% over the prior week.
For the week of August 8, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.5% from prior week.
- Down 1.7% from 90 days ago.
- Down 27.6% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 24.3% increased, 45.2% decreased and 30.5% went unchanged.
A few of markets of interest this week, with regards to the intermodal spot market, include outbound Atlanta to the west coast decreased roughly 4.0% and many key outbound Los Angeles lanes increased roughly 4.0%.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.7% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 12.2% and COFC is down 1.9%.
By region, volume is down 3.7% in the US, up 1.6% in Canada and down 3.3% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.3% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remains in favor of intermodal this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.9% and domestic 53' intermodal down 25.1%.
As we have been indicating since June, the spread is widening in the percentage decrease in the market views of truckload versus intermodal.
The reason the spread is expected to increase over the latter part of 3rd quarter and beginning of 4th quarter is because intermodal spot rates accelerated through the beginning of the 2018 4th quarter, even as truckload spot rates slowed.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.032 per gallon this week, which is down $0.002 from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.191 or 5.9% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing took a big dip down this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $54.40 and $58.60, respectively.
The headlines of trade conflict and its impact on slowing the global economic growth took the lead over political instability possibly tightening the ability to buy oil, thus the significant decline in oil pricing.
The EIA's July 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.10 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.58
- Brent $66.51
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison