Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jan 15 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 4.1% over prior week.
For the week of Jan 15, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 4.1% from prior week.
- Down 20.5% from 90 days ago.
- Up 5.1% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 10.5% increased, 71.1% decreased and 18.4% went unchanged.
This week continues the slide in the intermodal spot rates with the decrease over the last two weeks totaling a 15.2% decline.
Assuming current market dynamics remain similar, we anticipate another 8% decrease in intermodal spot rates over the coming weeks.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate, as reported by DAT, decreased $0.06 a mile or 2.8% from the prior week. DAT reported the national truckload spot rate was $2.05 a mile. Truckload spot rates are down 2.4% from prior year.
The percentage spread between the year-over-year truckload and intermodal cost per mile decreased again this week coming in at a 4.9-point spread.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.0976 per gallon this week, which is a $0.037 decrease over prior week. This is the thirteenth consecutive week of a decrease and the first time since January 8, 2018 where the price is below $3.00 a gallon.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.052 or 1.7% lower from the same period last year making it the first week since November 11, 2016 where the year-over-year price comparison was lower than the prior year.
Oil prices per barrel is on the rise this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $52.00 and $60.45 today, respectively. The increase is roughly $2.00 from prior week.
Even with the increase this week the story of what is driving lower price from the prior year are : fear of slowing world economies, building oil inventory, trade & tariff concerns and stronger dollar.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is a $2.95 per gallon price for 2019.
The EIA is projecting the price per barrel projections for 2019 for WTI and Brent are $54.19 and $61.00, respectively.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison