Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jan 21 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 4.5% over prior week.
For the week of Jan 21, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 4.5% from prior week.
- Down 24.5% from 90 days ago.
- Down 0.3% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 4% increased, 71% decreased and 25% went unchanged.
This week continues the slide we predicted was setting up within the intermodal spot rate market.
The decrease in the rates over the last three weeks totals a 19.2% decline.
Assuming current market dynamics remain similar, we anticipate another 4% to 5% decrease in intermodal spot rates over the coming weeks before settling into the "normal" trends of the 1st quarter.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate, as reported by DAT, decreased $0.04 a mile or 2.0% from the prior week. DAT reported the national truckload spot rate was $2.01 a mile. Truckload spot rates are down 2.4% from prior year.
The percentage spread between the year-over-year truckload and intermodal cost per mile decreased again this week coming in at a 1.6-point spread.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.0965 per gallon this week, which is a $0.011 decrease over prior week. This is the fourteenth consecutive week of a decrease.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.060 or 2.0% lower from the same period last year.
Oil prices per barrel is relatively flat this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $52.30 and $60.75 today, respectively.
The story remains the same as to why oil continues to hover in the $50 range: fear of slowing world economies, building oil inventory, trade & tariff concerns and stronger dollar.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is a $2.95 per gallon price for 2019.
The EIA is projecting the price per barrel projections for 2019 for WTI and Brent are $54.19 and $61.00, respectively.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison