Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jan 29 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.4% over prior week.
For the week of Jan 29, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.4% from prior week.
- Down 24.2% from 90 days ago.
- Down 2.1% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 10.5% increased, 16.7% decreased and 72.8% went unchanged.
As the stats indicate, this week held relatively flat over prior week.
The decrease in the rates over the last four weeks totals a 19.5% decline.
Assuming current market dynamics remain similar, we anticipate another 3.5% to 4.5% decrease in intermodal spot rates over the coming weeks before settling into the "normal" trends of the 1st quarter.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate, as reported by DAT, decreased $0.04 a mile or 2.0% from the prior week. DAT reported the national truckload spot rate was $1.97 a mile. Truckload spot rates are down 2.4% from prior year.
The percentage spread between the year-over-year truckload and intermodal cost per mile decreased again this week with truckload's year-over-year decrease now less than intermodal thus flipping the spread to a -0.4 point spread.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.965 per gallon this week, which holds the price flat to the prior week. This is the fifteenth consecutive week of a decrease or holding flat.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.105 or 3.4% lower from the same period last year.
Oil prices per barrel is up roughly $1.00 from the prior week, with WTI and Brent closing at $53.31 and $61.24, respectively.
The story has changed slightly with some believing political pressures are taking some supply out of the market, thus the rise this week. Even with that said, the story remains relatively the same as to why oil continues to be held relatively range bound: fear of slowing world economies, building oil inventory, trade & tariff concerns and stronger dollar.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is a $2.94 per gallon price for 2019.
The EIA is projecting the price per barrel projections for 2019 for WTI and Brent are $54.19 and $60.52, respectively.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison