Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Jan 3 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index increased 5.3% over prior week.
For the week of Jan 3, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Up 5.3% from prior week
- Down 8.0% from 90 days ago.
- Up 25.7% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 5.3% increased, 92.1% decreased and 2.6% went unchanged.
As commented in previous blogs, there are times high volume lanes hold the index higher than what the individual lanes would indicate is happening in the market. This week is one of those times.
If it were not for a few lanes, the intermodal spot rate index would have held flat to the prior week.
We're expecting the weakness in the intermodal spot rate market to begin to show itself again next week and continue through the next two months, as it follows the typical trend seasonal trend. If all hold true to prior trends, the intermodal spot rates will decrease another 12% to 15%.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate, as reported by DAT, increased $0.01 a mile this week. DAT reported the national truckload spot rate was $2.08 a mile. Truckload spot rates are down 2.4% from prior year.
The percentage spread between the year-over-year truckload and intermodal cost per mile increased this week coming in at a 21.7-point spread. The truckload spot market reacts quicker to market dynamics, which has us looking for intermodal spot rates to decline further and tighten the spread over the coming weeks.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.048 per gallon this week, which is a $0.029 decrease over prior week. This is the eleventh consecutive week of a decrease.
The diesel price per gallon is up $0.075 or 2.5% higher from the same period last year.
Oil prices per barrel continues increased this week, with WTI and Brent closing at $47.19 and $55.95 today, respectively.
The story is not changing ... slowing world economies, building oil inventory, trade & tariff concerns and stronger dollar.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is $3.17 a gallon for calendar year 2018 and $2.95 a gallon for 2019. The 2019 forecast was significantly decreased in its latest projection, which indicates the diesel price market will continue to soften.
The EIA is projecting WTI and Brent oil prices per barrel for 2018 to settle in at the average of $65.18 and 71.40, respectively. The price per barrel projections for 2019 for WTI and Brent are $54.19 and $61.00, respectively.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Graphs listed below include:
- 53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
- Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
- 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison