Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - July 23, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 2.1% over the prior week.
For the week of July 23, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 2.1% from prior week.
- Down 2.4% from 90 days ago.
- Down 23.5% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 3.5% increased, 54.8% decreased and 41.7% went unchanged.
The intermodal spot rates de-stabilized this week taking a turn lower, with what could essentially be viewed as an across the board reduction in all markets.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.5% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 11.7% and COFC is down 1.8%.
By region, volume is down 3.6% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.1% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate decreased 0.3% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remains in favor of intermodal this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.5% and domestic 53' intermodal down 21.6%.
Because the intermodal spot market continued its climb even as truckload spot rates slowed expect to see the year-over-year spread widen over the latter part of the 3rd quarter and beginning of the 4th quarter.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.044 per gallon this week, which is down $0.007 from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.176 or 5.5% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing remained constant this week, with WTI and Brent closing today at $57.17 and $64.26, respectively.
There has been relatively little change in oil prices as of late, even as he global political environment remains particularly tense in the Middle East, with Iran on trying to find the line that will cause more global support, without driving US military action. Add to it, the world economies are in question, which one would expect to drive oil prices lower.
The EIA's July 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.10 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.58
- Brent $66.51
Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison