Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - June 25, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.4% over the prior week.
For the week of June 25, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.4% from prior week.
- Down 0.7% from 90 days ago.
- Down 21.0% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 6.1% increased, 70.4% decreased and 23.5% went unchanged.
We are still expecting one more leg down in rates before they bottom out and the broad lane decrease helps to support the story.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.2% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 10.5% and COFC is down 1.5%.
By region, volume is down 3.0% in the US, up 1.4% in Canada and down 3.4% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.4% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates flipped in favor of intermodal, with truckload spot rates down 16.9% and domestic intermodal down 18.5%.
While we are projecting one more leg down on the spot rates, we expect to see the year-over-year spot rate percentage decrease climb through the summer, as the comparables will continue to get more difficult. The percentage decrease will fall plus or minus off an expected 25% decrease in the year-over-year spot rate.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.043 per gallon this week, which is down $0.027 or 0.9% from the prior week.
This marks the 5th consecutive week a decrease has been reported.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.173 or 5.4% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing increased this week, with WTI and Brent closing today at $57.83 and $64.99, respectively.
While the global political environment remains tense, it is surprisingly not having a dramatic impact on oil prices.
The prior statement proved itself out today with investors shrugging off President's Trump's comment that he was indifferent on the result of tariff discussions he will be having with China's President Xi at the G-20 Summit this weekend and he would continue to escalate pressure on Iran.
The EIA's June 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.11 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.29
- Brent $66.69
Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison