Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - June 25, 2019 Blog Feature
Rick LaGore

By: Rick LaGore on June 25th, 2019

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Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - June 25, 2019

Intermodal | truckload | diesel fuel price | intermodal spot rates | intermodal spot rate index trendlines

Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.

The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.4% over the prior week.  

intermodal supply chain and logisticsFor the week of June 25, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:

  • Down 0.4% from prior week.
  • Down 0.7% from 90 days ago.
  • Down 21.0% from prior year.

Lane Stats: 6.1% increased, 70.4% decreased and 23.5% went unchanged.   

We are still expecting one more leg down in rates before they bottom out and the broad lane decrease helps to support the story.

Intermodal Volume

Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.2% from prior YTD.

Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 10.5% and COFC is down 1.5%.

By region, volume is down 3.0% in the US, up 1.4% in Canada and down 3.4% in Mexico.

Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate 

intermodal truckThe national truckload spot rate increased 1.4% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report

The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates flipped in favor of intermodal, with truckload spot rates down 16.9% and domestic intermodal down 18.5%. 

While we are projecting one more leg down on the spot rates, we expect to see the year-over-year spot rate percentage decrease climb through the summer, as the comparables will continue to get more difficult.  The percentage decrease will fall plus or minus off an expected 25% decrease in the year-over-year spot rate.

Diesel Fuel Comments: 

diesel fule priceThe EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.043 per gallon this week, which is down $0.027 or 0.9% from the prior week.

This marks the 5th consecutive week a decrease has been reported.

The diesel price per gallon is down $0.173 or 5.4% from the same period last year.

WTI and Brent crude oil pricing increased this week, with WTI and Brent closing today at $57.83 and $64.99, respectively.  

While the global political environment remains tense, it is surprisingly not having a dramatic impact on oil prices. 

The prior statement proved itself out today with investors shrugging off President's Trump's comment that he was indifferent on the result of tariff discussions he will be having with China's President Xi at the G-20 Summit this weekend and he would continue to escalate pressure on Iran.

The EIA's June 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.11 per gallon for calendar year.  

In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:

  • WTI $59.29
  • Brent $66.69

Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.

The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs

  • 53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
  • Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
  • Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
  • Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
  • 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison  

Intermodal Spot Rate and Diesel Fuel 6.25-1

Intermodal Spot Rate and Diesel Fuel Baseline 6.25-1

Intermodal Spot Rate and Diesel Fuel Yr-over-Yr Comparison  6.25-1

Intermodal Spot Rate and Diesel Fuel Yr-over-Yr Percentage  6.25-1

Intermodal Spot Rate and Diesel Fuel Qtr-over-Qtr Comparison  6.25-1

For more on 53' domestic intermodaltruckload , cross-border and managed transportation services, please sign-up for our weekly blogs and visit the InTek Freight and Logistics website.

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About Rick LaGore

Rick is the co-founder and CEO of InTek Freight & Logistics, a company focused on being the place where companies come when faced with a logistics problem.

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