Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - March 19 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 1.1% over prior week.
For the week of March 11, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 1.1% from prior week.
- Down 21.9% from 90 days ago.
- Down 13.4% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 10.4% increased, 17.4% decreased and 72.2% went unchanged.
Outbound Chicago outbound continued their decreases this week, although a much smaller decrease than prior week.
Intermodal volumes continue to show weakness.
Volumes are down 1.1% on a calendar YTD year-over-year basis with trailers (TOFC) down 3.2% and containers (COFC) down 1.0%. In terms of domestic regions, USA is down 0.8%, Canada down 0.4% and Mexico is down 8.6%.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The year-over-year percentage decrease flipped last week, with truckload's decrease 11.3% per mile and intermodal's decrease declined further and is now 13.0% per mile les than the prior year. Keep in mind when using this metric to apply it as directional data tool, not an absolute. There is a difference in average miles for DAT truckload and InTek intermodal spot rate stats that can skew data one way or another, but even with some data differences the comparison is a good directional indicator.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.070 per gallon this week, which is down $0.009 from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is up $0.098 or 3.3% higher from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude are up roughly $1.80 a barrel this week versus last, with WTI and Brent trading in the range $59.75 and $68.05 today, respectively.
Oil prices continue to be a big question for many logistics professionals in 2019, with OPEC continuing to hold each other to production cuts, world economic slowdown, US production continuing to grow and the possibility of a political issue arising in key oil production countries.
The EIA's March 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.01 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $56.13
- Brent $62.78
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison