Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Sept 11, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 1.6% over the prior week.
For the week of September 11, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 1.6% from prior week.
- Down 4.9% from 90 days ago.
- Down 30.4% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 7.0% increased, 44.3% decreased and 48.7% went unchanged.
The outbound LA increases that occurred last week essentially rolled back to two weeks ago. The other decreases were more across the board type cuts that went across several markets. The handful of lane increases came from outbound Dallas lanes.
North American intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD, with volume down 2.9% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 13.0% and COFC is down 2.1%.
By region, volume is down 4.0% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.9% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 2.0% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remain in favor of intermodal, with truckload spot rates down 15.2% and domestic 53' intermodal down 25.8%.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.971 per gallon this week, which is down $0.005 from the prior week.
This is the ninth consecutive week the market has seen diesel rates drop.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.287 or 8.8% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing are down slightly over last week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $50.10 and $60.24, respectively.
Rising oil production, with the backdrop of slowing consumption continues to put a ceiling price on both WTI and Brent oil. The expectation is pricing will continue to see a cap on the upside, with some more room to move lower.
The EIA's September 2019 diesel price average price projection is $3.05 per gallon for calendar year. This is a $0.02 decrease from August's forecast.
In the same report, the EIA's decreased its average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 from what it had in August's report. The latest projections are below:
- WTI $56.31
- Brent $63.39
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison