Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Sept 18, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.5% over the prior week.
For the week of September 18, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.5% from prior week.
- Down 5.3% from 90 days ago.
- Down 30.7% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 11.3% increased, 2.6% decreased and 86.1% went unchanged.
As the numbers above would indicate, there were just a few lanes that decreased and to have a 0.5% impact it had to come from a more heavily weighted lane, which in this case was the outbound SoCal market.
North American intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD, with volume down 2.9% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 13.0% and COFC is down 2.0%.
By region, volume is down 4.0% in the US, up 1.7% in Canada and down 3.3% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 0.7% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remain in favor of intermodal, with truckload spot rates down 15.2% and domestic 53' intermodal down 26.0%.
Keep in mind that the truckload spot rate last year had backed off its surge well in advance of intermodal, so it is only natural that intermodal year-over-year percentage decrease is greater than truckload.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.987 per gallon this week, which is up $0.016 from the prior week.
This is the first increase after nine consecutive weeks of decline.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.281 or 8.3% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing are up significantly over last week, with WTI and Brent closing $58.68 and $64.81, respectively.
The reason for the increase is because of the bombing of the Saudi oil fields putting upward political pressure on pricing and decreasing the amount of production from the Saudi nation.
This upward pressure is expected to decrease after the Saudi fields are back to full production because of the backdrop of slowing consumption brought on by a slowing global economy that is the result of the USA and China trade tensions.
The EIA's September 2019 diesel price average price projection is $3.05 per gallon for calendar year. This is a $0.02 decrease from August's forecast.
In the same report, the EIA's decreased its average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 from what it had in August's report. The latest projections are below:
- WTI $56.31
- Brent $63.39
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison