After May showed a jump in Transportation Prices and a dip in Transportation Capacity, the June Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) further widened the gap - a good sign for freight recovery. The Prices metric gained another 3.2 points to reach its highest level (at 61) since September of 2022, while the Capacity metric fell 7.3 out of expansion to an even 50 - its lowest level since March of 2022.
The 11-point gap between the two (with Transportation Prices in the lead) is the largest since April of 2022, and again is the second straight month Prices jumped ahead of Capacity. LMI authors say they'd be comfortable calling the "end of the freight recession" if the trend takes hold, something they say is fair to expect with the traditional peak season period coming up. While they note it's not over yet, authors say "this is what the beginning of a recovery might look like.
Overall, the LMI stayed relatively even, with just a 0.3 dip to 55.3 in June - remaining in expansion for the seventh consecutive month (and the 10th time in the last 11 months). Within the LMI, there was more movement, though, with the largest change coming to Warehousing Utilization - which dropped 11.4 to a barely expanding (and nearly all-time low) 52.6. Another Utilization metric - on the Transportation side - saw the second largest change, going down 3.5 to 55.7
Back to Warehousing, Capacity also fell three points to 52.6, while Inventory Levels stayed in contraction for the second month in a row, gaining 0.8 to 47.4. That metric is the only one in contraction, but authors point to scheduled imports as evidence of potential "pre-stocking," suggesting those levels may not stay low for long.
Respondents in June maintained their optimism for industry movement over the next year, projecting the LMI a year from now at 66.1 - up 0.6 from last month's prediction, and once again coming in as the highest 12-month-out prediction since two years ago. Authors point to expected significant growth in Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Transportation Utilization, and Transportation Costs (with Capacity dipping well into contraction).
See the summary of the June 2024 Logistics Managers' Index, by the numbers:
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno - in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) - issue the report. The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50.0 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50.0 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. The latest results of the LMI summarize the responses of supply chain professionals collected in June 2024.
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