Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - Feb 5 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index increased 0.6% over prior week.
For the week of Feb 5, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Up 0.6% from prior week.
- Down 23.1% from 90 days ago.
- Up 3.4% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 11.4% increased, 39.5% decreased and 49.1% went unchanged.
Intermodal spot rates are down 19.0% since the end of 2018.
Assuming current market dynamics remain similar, we anticipate another 3.5% to 4.5% decrease in intermodal spot rates over the coming weeks before settling into the "normal" trends of the 1st quarter.
Intermodal YTD Volume Comparison
- Total intermodal volumes are flat to last year.
- Mexico intermodal freight has dropped 14.0% from prior year because of less cross-border traffic.
- Trailer on flatcar (TOFC) is down 3.4%, while container on flatcar (COFC) is up 0.3%
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate, as reported by DAT, decreased $0.04 a mile or 2.0% from the prior week. DAT reported the national truckload spot rate was $1.93 a mile. Truckload spot rates are down 13.0% from prior year.
The percentage spread between the year-over-year truckload and intermodal cost per mile flipped and widened this week to 14.6 points, meaning truckload per mile spot rates are down 13.0% from the prior year while intermodal rate per mile is up 1.6%
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $2.966 per gallon this week, which is the 1st increase in 15 weeks.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.12 or 3.9% lower from the same period last year.
Oil prices remain a big question mark for many logistics professionals in 2019. Political pressure, slowing economy, building oil inventory, trade & tariff concerns and stronger dollar is why this is a battle ground topic.
The EIA's most current diesel price projection for diesel is a $2.94 per gallon price for 2019.
The EIA is projecting the price per barrel projections for 2019 for WTI and Brent are $54.19 and $60.52, respectively.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison