Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - July 2, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index increased 1.6% over the prior week.
For the week of July 2, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Up 1.6% from prior week.
- Up 1.3% from 90 days ago.
- Down 18.2% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 40.9% increased, 32.1% decreased and 27.0% went unchanged.
California and PNW region outbound experienced across-the-board increases ranging from 1.5% to 6.5%.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.3% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 10.9% and COFC is down 1.6%.
By region, volume is down 3.2% in the US, up 1.4% in Canada and down 3.3% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 2.4% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates flipped back in favor of truckload this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.3% and domestic 53' intermodal down 16.6%.
While we are projecting one more leg down on the spot rates, we expect to see the year-over-year spot rate percentage decrease climb through the summer, as the comparables will continue to get more difficult.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.042 per gallon this week, which is down $0.001 from the prior week.
This marks the 6th consecutive week a decrease has been reported.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.194 or 6.0% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing decreased this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $57.20 and $63.35, respectively.
While the global political environment remains tense and the world economies are in question, it is surprisingly neither is having a dramatic impact on oil prices.
The EIA's June 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.11 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.29
- Brent $66.69
Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison