Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - July 9, 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.8% over the prior week.
For the week of July 9, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.8% from prior week.
- Up 0.5% from 90 days ago.
- Down 21.1% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 9.5% increased, 3.5% decreased and 87.0% went unchanged.
With 87% of the lanes going unchanged, there is nothing specific to report on a particular market leading another in either price increases or decreases.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.4% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 11.2% and COFC is down 1.5%.
By region, volume is down 3.3% in the US, up 1.5% in Canada and down 3.3% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 1.8% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates flipped back in favor of intermodal this week, with truckload spot rates down 18.4% and domestic 53' intermodal down 18.5%.
While we are projecting one more leg down on the spot rates, we expect to see the year-over-year spot rate percentage decrease continue further into double digits through the summer, as the comparables will be more difficult to overcome.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.055 per gallon this week, which is up $0.013 from the prior week.
This marks a change after six consecutive decreases.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.188 or 5.8% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing increased this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $57.90 and $64.25, respectively.
There has been relatively little change in oil prices as of late, even as he global political environment remains tense and the world economies are in question.
The EIA's June 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.11 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.29
- Brent $66.69
Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison