Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis - June 12 2019
Weekly discussion and analysis on the trends in the intermodal spot rate market.
The InTek intermodal spot rate index decreased 0.5% over prior week.
For the week of June10, 2019, domestic intermodal spot rate index:
- Down 0.5% from prior week.
- Down 3.0% from 90 days ago.
- Down 17.1% from prior year.
Lane Stats: 9.5% increased, 12.2% decreased and 78.3% went unchanged.
We are still expecting one more leg down in rates before they bottom out.
Intermodal volume remains weak, as compared to prior YTD with volume down 2.0% from prior YTD.
Breaking the volume down by equipment, TOFC is down 9.8% and COFC is down 1.3%.
By region, volume is down 2.7% in the US, up 1.5% in Canada and down 4.1% in Mexico.
Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate
The national truckload spot rate increased 6.5% last week, as reported by the DAT Trendline Report.
The truckload spot rate increase is a false read on the overall market because it was driven by the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CSVA) International Roadcheck Week that cause many drivers to choose to stay off the road during the week.
The spread in the year-over-year national truckload average rate per mile and intermodal spot rates remained in the favor of truckload, with truckload spot rates down 16.9% and domestic intermodal down 14.0%.
Even with the inherent differences in the DAT truckload and InTek intermodal index, the spread is a relative indicator we watch to help gauge the market's appetite for modal conversion opportunities.
As the stats indicate, modal conversion from intermodal to truckload is not in favor at this time.
Diesel Fuel Comments:
The EIA reported average diesel fuel price of $3.105 per gallon this week, which is down $0.031 or 1.0% from the prior week.
The diesel price per gallon is down $0.161 or 4.9% from the same period last year.
WTI and Brent crude oil pricing decreased again this week, with WTI and Brent trading in the range of $51.95 and $61.07, respectively.
The EIA's June 2019 diesel price average price projection for diesel is $3.11 per gallon for calendar year.
In the same report, the EIA's average price per barrel oil projections for 2019 are:
- WTI $59.29
- Brent $66.69
Both diesel and oil prices were decreased in the latest EIA forecast providing more evidence analysts believe a weakening economic front is on the horizon.
The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/.
Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs
53' Domestic Intermodal Price Index & Diesel Fuel Prices
Variance to January 1, 2013 Baseline
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year Comparison - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
Rolling 52 Year-over-Year % Change - 53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Fuel Prices
53' Domestic Intermodal and Diesel Prices Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparison